How to recognise the start of a recession


Only 2 years after the global recession was officially over, the US economy has shrunk for two quarters, heightening concerns that the country is either entering or has already entered a recession.


Recessions are often defined by a six-month period of contraction. But nothing in the post-pandemic market is straightforward.


Since growth abruptly came to an end in March 2020 when COVID19 hit & 20 million Americans were abruptly out of work, its trajectory has baffled Federal Reserve officials and many private economists

Employers increased employment by 2.7 million, more than they did in the majority of years prior to the epidemic, throughout the first half of this year's economic contraction.



Who establishes the beginning of a recession?

The mysterious-sounding National Bureau of Economic Research, a team of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession

Does a recession occur when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters?

That is a typical guideline but not the official definition.

What warning signs might there be of a coming recession?

a rise in unemployment and a steady increase in job losses.